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Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
D. Antiukh 4' (pen)
R. Debelko 90+5'
K. Prykhodko 56'
M. Luniov 42' (pen)
8/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Zorya Luhansk40%
×Draw27%
Kryvbas KR33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.30
Kryvbas KR
1.14

Zorya Luhansk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.14
Kryvbas KR
0.94

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.33
Kryvbas KR
1.47

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par
Kryvbas KR+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Kryvbas KR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
67%
Zorya Luhansk or Kryvbas KR
73%
Draw or Kryvbas KR
60%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
18%
Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
73%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
37%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
14%
Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
68%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
32%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
55%
Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Kryvbas KR away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kryvbas KR attack 0.94 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
40%
level
27%
Kryvbas KR scores more
33%

Zorya Luhansk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
D. AntiukhPenalty
16'
Roman Vantukh
29'
Maksym Zaderaka
39'
Djihad Bizimana
42'
Denys Antyukh
42'
M. LuniovPenalty
46'
K. Prykhodko← D. Bizimana
49'
Oleg Kozhushko
56'
K. Prykhodko↳ Y. Dibango
57'
I. Hulko← I. Snurnitsyn
57'
V. Buhai← D. Antiukh
57'
P. Mićin← D. Myshniov
57'
M. Tatarkov← H. Ilić
67'
Ilya Gulko
69'
D. Nahnoinyi← K. Dryshliuk
72'
Ilya Gulko
72'
Ilya Gulko
77'
Y. Vakulko← O. Kozhushko
84'
Y. Tlumak← V. Voloshyn
85'
Mikita Tatarkov
86'
R. Debelko← M. Luniov
88'
Vladyslav Bugai
90+5'
R. Debelko↳ D. Khomchenovskyi

Shots

8Zorya

Statistics

ZoryaKryvbas
Overview
8Total Shots13
3Corners10
9Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots13
3On Target8
5Off Target2
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
5Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR

Kryvbas KR beat Zorya Luhansk 3-1 in Premier League on August 6, 2023.

Goals: D. Antiukh (4' pen), M. Luniov (42' pen), K. Prykhodko (56'), R. Debelko (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kiev.