Zorya Luhansk 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kolos Kovalivka

5/25/2024

Premier League · Round 30Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Zorya Luhansk35%

×Draw26%

Kolos Kovalivka40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchKolos Kovalivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.42

Zorya Luhansk

1.31

Kolos Kovalivka

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.01

creates per match

1.44

1.41

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.01

Kolos Kovalivka

1.44

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.41

Kolos Kovalivka

1.61

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.01on par

Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

60%

Zorya Luhansk or Kolos Kovalivka

74%

Draw or Kolos Kovalivka

65%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

15%

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

73%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

38%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

14%

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

76%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

41%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

47%

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

35%

level

26%

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

40%

Kolos Kovalivka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff