Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Kolos Kovalivka: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolos Kovalivka

6/6/2020

Premier League · Championship Round - 3Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Zorya Luhansk37%

×Draw25%

Kolos Kovalivka37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchKolos Kovalivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.39

Zorya Luhansk

1.38

Kolos Kovalivka

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.14

Kolos Kovalivka

1.44

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.33

Kolos Kovalivka

1.61

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par

Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

63%

Zorya Luhansk or Kolos Kovalivka

75%

Draw or Kolos Kovalivka

63%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

17%

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

75%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

40%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

16%

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

75%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

40%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

50%

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

37%

level

25%

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

37%

Zorya Luhansk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff