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Znamya Truda vs Tver — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Tver
Tver
8/21/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda34%
×Draw26%
Tver40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.25
Tver
1.37

Tver creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 89 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Tver
1.26

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Tver
1.46

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Tver+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Tver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
60%
Znamya Truda or Tver
74%
Draw or Tver
66%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
15%
Tver wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
71%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
36%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
13%
Tver 1+ goals
75%
Tver 2+ goals
40%
Tver 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
46%
Tver (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Tver away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Tver defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tver attack 1.26 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
34%
level
26%
Tver scores more
40%

Tver at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Znamya Truda 1–5 Tver

Tver beat Znamya Truda 5-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.