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Znamya Noginsk vs Kolomna — Cup 2019

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
7/14/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Znamya Noginsk54%
×Draw20%
Kolomna26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
2.27
Kolomna
1.52

Znamya Noginsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Kolomna
0.67

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
2.38
Kolomna
3.17

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
74%
Znamya Noginsk or Kolomna
80%
Draw or Kolomna
46%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
33%
Kolomna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
90%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
66%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
39%
Kolomna 1+ goals
78%
Kolomna 2+ goals
45%
Kolomna 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
68%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Kolomna defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.27

Kolomna attack 0.67 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
54%
level
20%
Kolomna scores more
26%

Znamya Noginsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Znamya Noginsk 3–0 Kolomna

Znamya Noginsk beat Kolomna 3-0 in Cup on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.