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Zmaj Makarska vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
1 – 1
Vodice
Vodice
4/24/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 25Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zmaj Makarska55%
×Draw24%
Vodice22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.73
Vodice
0.99

Zmaj Makarska creates 75% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Vodice
2.17

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
78%
Zmaj Makarska or Vodice
76%
Draw or Vodice
45%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
30%
Vodice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
82%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
52%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
25%
Vodice 1+ goals
63%
Vodice 2+ goals
26%
Vodice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
72%
Vodice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vodice attack 0.92 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
55%
level
24%
Vodice scores more
22%

Zmaj Makarska at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Makarska 1–1 Vodice

Zmaj Makarska and Vodice drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.