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Zlin vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
7/15/2019Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Zlin35%
×Draw27%
Slavia Praha39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.25
Slavia Praha
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.44
Slavia Praha
1.62

allows per match

Zlin
1.04
Slavia Praha
1.05

finishing

Zlin-0.44scores less
Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
61%
Zlin or Slavia Praha
73%
Draw or Slavia Praha
65%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
15%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
71%
Zlin 2+ goals
36%
Zlin 3+ goals
13%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
74%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
38%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
47%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 6 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.44 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Zlin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zlin scores more
35%
level
27%
Slavia Praha scores more
39%

Slavia Praha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zlin vs Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Zlin 1-0 in Czech Liga on July 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.