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Zlín U19 vs Sparta Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Zlín U19
Zlín U19
FT
0 – 2
Sparta Praha U19
Sparta Praha U19
9/11/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 7Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Zlín U1937%
×Draw22%
Sparta Praha U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín U19
1.76
Sparta Praha U19
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Zlín U19
2.14
Sparta Praha U19
2.16

allows per match

Zlín U19
1.54
Sparta Praha U19
1.37

finishing

Zlín U19+0.00on par
Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín U19 ↓

Sparta Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zlín U19 or draw
59%
Zlín U19 or Sparta Praha U19
78%
Draw or Sparta Praha U19
63%

Winning margin

Zlín U19 wins by 2+
19%
Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zlín U19 1+ goals
83%
Zlín U19 2+ goals
52%
Zlín U19 3+ goals
26%
Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals
84%
Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals
55%
Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

Sparta Praha U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.37 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín U19 attack 2.14 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.16 + Zlín U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zlín U19 scores more
37%
level
22%
Sparta Praha U19 scores more
41%

Sparta Praha U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zlín U19 vs Sparta Praha U19

Sparta Praha U19 beat Zlín U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Areál Vlastislava Marečka in Zlín.