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Zlín U19 vs Sigma Olomouc U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Zlín U19
Zlín U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
10/26/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Zlín U1944%
×Draw23%
Sigma Olomouc U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín U19
1.81
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.56

Zlín U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Zlín U19
2.14
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.57

allows per match

Zlín U19
1.54
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.49

finishing

Zlín U19+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín U19 ↓

Sigma Olomouc U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zlín U19 or draw
66%
Zlín U19 or Sigma Olomouc U19
77%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc U19
56%

Winning margin

Zlín U19 wins by 2+
23%
Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zlín U19 1+ goals
84%
Zlín U19 2+ goals
54%
Zlín U19 3+ goals
27%
Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
79%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
46%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

Sigma Olomouc U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín U19 attack 2.14 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.57 + Zlín U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zlín U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
34%

Zlín U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zlín U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Zlín U19 1–0 Sigma Olomouc U19

Zlín U19 beat Sigma Olomouc U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Areál Vlastislava Marečka in Zlín.