Zlín U19 1–2 Baník Ostrava U19: Result & Stats

Zlín U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Ostrava U19

5/12/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 26Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Zlín U1943%

×Draw22%

Baník Ostrava U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlín U19Expected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.68

Zlín U19

1.87

Baník Ostrava U19

1.68

Zlín U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

2.14

creates per match

1.81

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Zlín U19

2.14

Baník Ostrava U19

1.81

allows per match

Zlín U19

1.54

Baník Ostrava U19

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlín U19+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Zlín U19 or draw

65%

Zlín U19 or Baník Ostrava U19

78%

Draw or Baník Ostrava U19

57%

Winning margin

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

23%

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zlín U19 1+ goals

85%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

56%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

29%

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

81%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

50%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín U19 attack 2.14 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Zlín U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zlín U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

35%

Zlín U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zlín U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff