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Zidgrad Idrija vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zidgrad Idrija
Zidgrad Idrija
Preview
15:00
Adria
Adria
9/12/20263. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 5
43%
Adria
model favours
33%25%43%

Zidgrad Idrija and Adria have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zidgrad Idrija33%
×Draw25%
Adria43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zidgrad Idrija
1.34
Adria
1.56

Adria creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zidgrad Idrija
1.46
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Zidgrad Idrija
1.69
Adria
1.22

finishing

Zidgrad Idrija+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zidgrad Idrija ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zidgrad Idrija or draw
57%
Zidgrad Idrija or Adria
75%
Draw or Adria
67%

Winning margin

Zidgrad Idrija wins by 2+
14%
Adria wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zidgrad Idrija 1+ goals
74%
Zidgrad Idrija 2+ goals
39%
Zidgrad Idrija 3+ goals
15%
Adria 1+ goals
79%
Adria 2+ goals
46%
Adria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zidgrad Idrija (draw refunded)
44%
Adria (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zidgrad Idrija at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zidgrad Idrija attack 1.46 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Adria attack 1.44 + Zidgrad Idrija defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zidgrad Idrija scores more
33%
level
25%
Adria scores more
43%

Adria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Idrija
DDLWL
Adria
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zidgrad Idrija face Adria (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Zidgrad Idrija hosting Adria. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.