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Zhetysu vs Kairat Almaty — Cup 2019

Zhetysu
Zhetysu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
7/10/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 1Ortalıq Stadion Jetisu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zhetysu35%
×Draw31%
Kairat Almaty35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu
1.00
Kairat Almaty
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Zhetysu
0.63
Kairat Almaty
1.86

allows per match

Zhetysu
0.13
Kairat Almaty
1.36

finishing

Zhetysu+0.00on par
Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu ↓

Kairat Almaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Zhetysu or draw
65%
Zhetysu or Kairat Almaty
69%
Draw or Kairat Almaty
65%

Winning margin

Zhetysu wins by 2+
13%
Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zhetysu 1+ goals
63%
Zhetysu 2+ goals
26%
Zhetysu 3+ goals
8%
Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
63%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
26%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu (draw refunded)
50%
Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.13 · 8 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu attack 0.63 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kairat Almaty attack 1.86 + Zhetysu defence 0.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Zhetysu scores more
35%
level
31%
Kairat Almaty scores more
35%

Zhetysu at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Zhetysu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zhetysu 0–1 Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty beat Zhetysu 1-0 in Cup on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion Jetisu in Taldykorgan.