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Zeta vs Rudar Velenje — First League 2019

Zeta
Zeta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
8/31/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zeta46%
×Draw27%
Rudar Velenje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeta
1.38
Rudar Velenje
0.97

Zeta creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 90 away

creates per match

Zeta
1.00
Rudar Velenje
0.86

allows per match

Zeta
1.08
Rudar Velenje
1.76

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zeta or draw
74%
Zeta or Rudar Velenje
73%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
54%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+
22%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals
75%
Zeta 2+ goals
40%
Zeta 3+ goals
16%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
62%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
25%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)
64%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 1.00 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Zeta defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zeta scores more
46%
level
27%
Rudar Velenje scores more
26%

Zeta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeta vs Rudar Velenje

Zeta beat Rudar Velenje 2-1 in First League on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.