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Zeta vs Lovćen — Second League 2025

Zeta
Zeta
Preview
14:00
Lovćen
Lovćen
11/15/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17
36%
Zeta
model favours
36%31%33%

Lovćen are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zeta36%
×Draw31%
Lovćen33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeta
1.04
Lovćen
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zeta
0.88
Lovćen
1.05

allows per match

Zeta
0.88
Lovćen
1.21

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Zeta or draw
67%
Zeta or Lovćen
69%
Draw or Lovćen
64%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+
14%
Lovćen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals
65%
Zeta 2+ goals
28%
Zeta 3+ goals
9%
Lovćen 1+ goals
62%
Lovćen 2+ goals
25%
Lovćen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)
53%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 0.88 + Lovćen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Lovćen attack 1.05 + Zeta defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zeta scores more
36%
level
31%
Lovćen scores more
33%

Zeta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Lovćen score first in only 15% of matches
  • 69% of Lovćen’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Lovćen’s matches
  • Zeta and Lovćen have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zeta
DDLDW
Lovćen
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zeta vs Lovćen — Match Preview

Zeta face Lovćen on November 15, 2026 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.