Zeta 2–1 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats | Cup

Zeta

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

V. Kalezić 40'

Mijat Lambulić 20'

L. Mijović 5'

4/21/2021

Cup · Semi-finalsStadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zeta52%

×Draw20%

Buducnost Podgorica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZetaExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.76

Zeta

2.42

Buducnost Podgorica

1.76

Zeta creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

3.67

creates per match

2.18

1.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Zeta

3.67

Buducnost Podgorica

2.18

allows per match

Zeta

1.33

Buducnost Podgorica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Zeta or draw

72%

Zeta or Buducnost Podgorica

80%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

48%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+

32%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals

91%

Zeta 2+ goals

69%

Zeta 3+ goals

43%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

83%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

52%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)

65%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 3.67 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.42

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.18 + Zeta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zeta scores more

52%

level

20%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

28%

Zeta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

40'

42'

57'

B. Milić← M. Đuričković

57'

M. Raičković← A. Ćetković

68'

P. Orlandic

68'

P. Orlandić← L. Lambulić

71'

S. Popović← Mijat Lambulić

78'

A. Vujačić← L. Mirković

84'

S. Krstovic

88'

A. Soppo

90+1'

O. Đinović← J. Simović

Zeta

Buducnost

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Lambulić

Manager: R. Dostanić

68'▲P. Orlandić←▼L. Lambulić

71'▲S. Popović←▼Mijat Lambulić

90+1'▲O. Đinović←▼J. Simović

Zeta substitutes

OrlandićPopovićĐinović

Manager: M. Milinković

57'▲B. Milić←▼M. Đuričković

57'▲M. Raičković←▼A. Ćetković

78'▲A. Vujačić←▼L. Mirković

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

MilićRaičkovićVujačić

Match Recap: Zeta vs Buducnost Podgorica

Zeta beat Buducnost Podgorica 2-1 in Cup on April 21, 2021.

Goals: L. Mijović (5'), Mijat Lambulić (20'), V. Kalezić (40').

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.

Zeta vs Buducnost Podgorica — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zeta vs Buducnost Podgorica