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Zenit W vs Zvezda Perm W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zenit W
Zenit W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Zvezda Perm W
Zvezda Perm W
11/20/2021Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 27Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zenit W63%
×Draw23%
Zvezda Perm W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit W
1.72
Zvezda Perm W
0.67

Zenit W creates 157% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 68 away

creates per match

Zenit W
2.09
Zvezda Perm W
0.81

allows per match

Zenit W
0.53
Zvezda Perm W
1.35

finishing

Zenit W+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit W ↓

Zvezda Perm W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zenit W or draw
86%
Zenit W or Zvezda Perm W
77%
Draw or Zvezda Perm W
37%

Winning margin

Zenit W wins by 2+
36%
Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zenit W 1+ goals
82%
Zenit W 2+ goals
51%
Zenit W 3+ goals
25%
Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals
49%
Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals
15%
Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Zenit W (draw refunded)
82%
Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit W at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.53 · 76 matches

Zvezda Perm W away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit W attack 2.09 + Zvezda Perm W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.72

Zvezda Perm W attack 0.81 + Zenit W defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zenit W scores more
63%
level
23%
Zvezda Perm W scores more
14%

Zenit W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zenit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Zenit W 1–2 Zvezda Perm W

Zvezda Perm W beat Zenit W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.