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Zenit W vs CSKA Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zenit W
Zenit W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
3/25/2022Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 3Akademiya Zenit pole 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Zenit W35%
×Draw26%
CSKA Moskva W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit W
1.28
CSKA Moskva W
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

creates per match

Zenit W
2.09
CSKA Moskva W
2.16

allows per match

Zenit W
0.53
CSKA Moskva W
0.47

finishing

Zenit W+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zenit W or draw
61%
Zenit W or CSKA Moskva W
74%
Draw or CSKA Moskva W
65%

Winning margin

Zenit W wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zenit W 1+ goals
72%
Zenit W 2+ goals
37%
Zenit W 3+ goals
14%
CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
74%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
39%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zenit W (draw refunded)
48%
CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit W at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.53 · 76 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit W attack 2.09 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Zenit W defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zenit W scores more
35%
level
26%
CSKA Moskva W scores more
39%

CSKA Moskva W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Zenit W 2–0 CSKA Moskva W

Zenit W beat CSKA Moskva W 2-0 in Supreme Division Women on March 25, 2022.

The match was played at Akademiya Zenit pole 5 in St. Petersburg.