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Zenit U20 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U20
Zenit U20
PST
11:00
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
4/25/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zenit U2058%
×Draw22%
Sochi U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U20
1.91
Sochi U20
1.02

Zenit U20 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 92 away

creates per match

Zenit U20
2.10
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Zenit U20
0.71
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw
80%
Zenit U20 or Sochi U20
78%
Draw or Sochi U20
42%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+
34%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals
85%
Zenit U20 2+ goals
57%
Zenit U20 3+ goals
30%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
64%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
27%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zenit U20 scores more
58%
level
22%
Sochi U20 scores more
20%

Zenit U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit U20 vs Sochi U20 — Match Preview

Zenit U20 face Sochi U20 on April 25, 2020 in this Youth Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.