Zenit U20 vs Krylya Sovetov U20

Zenit U20

PST

00:00

Krylya Sovetov U20

4/4/2020

Youth Championship · Round 24Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zenit U2049%

×Draw22%

Krylya Sovetov U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U20Expected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.49

Zenit U20

1.96

Krylya Sovetov U20

1.49

Zenit U20 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

2.10

creates per match

2.27

0.71

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Zenit U20

2.10

Krylya Sovetov U20

2.27

allows per match

Zenit U20

0.71

Krylya Sovetov U20

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw

71%

Zenit U20 or Krylya Sovetov U20

78%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov U20

51%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+

27%

Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals

86%

Zenit U20 2+ goals

58%

Zenit U20 3+ goals

31%

Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals

77%

Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals

44%

Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Krylya Sovetov U20 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zenit U20 scores more

49%

level

22%

Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more

29%

Zenit U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff