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Zenit Penza vs Sakhalin — Second League - Group 3 2020

Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
10/31/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Pervomayskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Zenit Penza48%
×Draw25%
Sakhalin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Penza
1.56
Sakhalin
1.10

Zenit Penza creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 70 away

creates per match

Zenit Penza
1.27
Sakhalin
0.77

allows per match

Zenit Penza
1.43
Sakhalin
1.86

finishing

Zenit Penza+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Penza ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zenit Penza or draw
73%
Zenit Penza or Sakhalin
75%
Draw or Sakhalin
52%

Winning margin

Zenit Penza wins by 2+
25%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zenit Penza 1+ goals
79%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
46%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
21%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
67%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
30%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
64%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Penza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Penza attack 1.27 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + Zenit Penza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zenit Penza scores more
48%
level
25%
Sakhalin scores more
27%

Zenit Penza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Zenit Penza 3–0 Sakhalin

Zenit Penza beat Sakhalin 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pervomayskiy in Penza.