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Zenit 2 vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League A - Division A Silver 2026

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
Preview
15:00
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
8/7/2026Second League A - Division A SilverSecond League A - Division A Silver · Division A Silver - 4
61%
Zenit 2
model favours
61%19%19%

91% of Zenit 2’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zenit 261%
×Draw19%
Irtysh Omsk19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
2.33
Irtysh Omsk
1.24

Zenit 2 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
3.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.67

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.80
Irtysh Omsk
1.67

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
81%
Zenit 2 or Irtysh Omsk
81%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
39%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
39%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
90%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
67%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
41%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
71%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
35%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
76%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 3.00 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.67 + Zenit 2 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
61%
level
19%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
19%

Zenit 2 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Zenit 2’s matches
  • Zenit 2 and Irtysh Omsk have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
2
LLWLD
Omsk
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit 2 vs Irtysh Omsk — Match Preview

Zenit 2 face Irtysh Omsk on August 7, 2026 in this Second League A - Division A Silver fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.