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Zenit 2 vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
Preview
10:00
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
7/18/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 1
54%
Zenit 2
model favours
54%20%26%

91% of Zenit 2’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zenit 254%
×Draw20%
Dinamo Stavropol26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
2.23
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50

Zenit 2 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
2.67
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.78
Dinamo Stavropol
1.78

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
74%
Zenit 2 or Dinamo Stavropol
80%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
46%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
89%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
65%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
38%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
68%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.67 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Zenit 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
54%
level
20%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
26%

Zenit 2 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Zenit 2’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
2
LLWLW
Stavropol
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zenit 2 host Dinamo Stavropol

July 18, 2026: Zenit 2 take on Dinamo Stavropol in Second League A - Fall Season Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.