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Zenit 2 vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
9/18/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zenit 253%
×Draw24%
Baltika BFU24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
1.76
Baltika BFU
1.10

Zenit 2 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 53 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
2.10
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Zenit 2
0.96
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
76%
Zenit 2 or Baltika BFU
76%
Draw or Baltika BFU
47%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
29%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
83%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
52%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
26%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
67%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
30%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
69%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.10 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.76

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Zenit 2 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
53%
level
24%
Baltika BFU scores more
24%

Zenit 2 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit 2 vs Baltika BFU

Zenit 2 beat Baltika BFU 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.