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Zemun vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

Zemun
Zemun
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
12/17/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši (Zemun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zemun56%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Vranje19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemun
1.55
Dinamo Vranje
0.77

Zemun creates 101% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zemun
0.94
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

Zemun
1.17
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zemun or draw
81%
Zemun or Dinamo Vranje
74%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
44%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals
79%
Zemun 2+ goals
46%
Zemun 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)
75%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 0.94 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Zemun defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zemun scores more
56%
level
26%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
19%

Zemun at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Zemun 1–2 Dinamo Vranje

Dinamo Vranje beat Zemun 2-1 in Super Liga on December 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši (Zemun).