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Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
FT
4 – 1
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
10/5/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 10Stadion SK Tatran (Ždírec nad Doubravou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou59%
×Draw22%
Stará Říše19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.96
Stará Říše
1.01

Ždírec nad Doubravou creates 94% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.07
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
81%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Stará Říše
78%
Draw or Stará Říše
41%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
35%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
86%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
58%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
31%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
64%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
27%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
76%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
59%
level
22%
Stará Říše scores more
19%

Ždírec nad Doubravou at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ždírec nad Doubravou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ždírec nad Doubravou 4 – 1 Stará Říše

Ždírec nad Doubravou beat Stará Říše 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion SK Tatran (Ždírec nad Doubravou).