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Žďár nad Sázavou vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
PST
14:00
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 16Stadion Bouchalky (Žďár nad Sázavou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Žďár nad Sázavou67%
×Draw17%
Slavoj Polná16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žďár nad Sázavou
2.56
Slavoj Polná
1.17

Žďár nad Sázavou creates 119% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 54 away

creates per match

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.93
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.38
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žďár nad Sázavou ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Žďár nad Sázavou or draw
84%
Žďár nad Sázavou or Slavoj Polná
83%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
33%

Winning margin

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
45%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
92%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
72%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
46%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
69%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
33%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
81%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žďár nad Sázavou at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.93 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.56

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
67%
level
17%
Slavoj Polná scores more
16%

Žďár nad Sázavou at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Žďár nad Sázavou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žďár nad Sázavou face Slavoj Polná (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Žďár nad Sázavou hosting Slavoj Polná. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Žďár nad Sázavou host Slavoj Polná at Stadion Bouchalky (Žďár nad Sázavou).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.