Zbrojovka Brno U19 3–3 Zlín U19: Result & Stats

Zbrojovka Brno U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Zlín U19

8/12/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 2ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno U1949%

×Draw21%

Zlín U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka Brno U19Expected goals in this matchZlín U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.57

Zbrojovka Brno U19

2.07

Zlín U19

1.57

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 79 away

2.26

creates per match

1.62

1.52

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19

2.26

Zlín U19

1.62

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.52

Zlín U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Zlín U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno U19 ↓

Zlín U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or draw

70%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or Zlín U19

79%

Draw or Zlín U19

51%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+

28%

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals

87%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals

61%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals

34%

Zlín U19 1+ goals

79%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

46%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Zlín U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 2.26 + Zlín U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.07

Zlín U19 attack 1.62 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Zlín U19 scores more

30%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff