Zaragoza 0–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Jair Amador 88' (OG)

10/1/2023

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Zaragoza48%

×Draw25%

Mirandes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.15

Zaragoza

1.60

Mirandes

1.15

Zaragoza creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.76

creates per match

1.05

1.24

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.76

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.24

Mirandes

1.44

-0.93scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Zaragoza-0.93scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

73%

Zaragoza or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

52%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

25%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

80%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

47%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

22%

Mirandes 1+ goals

68%

Mirandes 2+ goals

32%

Mirandes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

64%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 6 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.76 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Zaragoza defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zaragoza scores more

48%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

27%

Zaragoza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

Andrés Borge

Zaragoza · D

7.3

Match Events

6'

17'

44'

45+2'

56'

Diego Moreno← Rubén Sánchez

67'

J. Gómez← Sergio Barcia

67'

Álvaro Sanz← Miguel Baeza

69'

Manu Vallejo← Iván Azón

69'

Marc Aguado← Toni Moya

73'

S. Mouriño← Q. Lecoeuche

73'

Víctor Mollejo← Germán Valera

79'

Tachi← Pablo Tomeo

79'

I. Durdov← Gabri Martínez

88'

Jair AmadorOwn goal

90+1'

Santiago Mouriño

90+6'

Pablo Ramón

90+4'

Ivan Durdov

90+1'

Sergio Bermejo← Maikel Mesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaMirandes

Overview

60%Possession40%

8Total Shots8

6Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots8

2On Target0

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

7Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

515Total Passes344

428Accurate Passes273

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Segunda División: Zaragoza 0–1 Mirandes

Mirandes beat Zaragoza 1-0 in Segunda División on October 1, 2023.

Goals: Jair Amador (88' o.g.).

Zaragoza controlled possession (60%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.

Zaragoza vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Zaragoza 0–1 Mirandes