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Zaragoza vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Zaragoza
Zaragoza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Elche
Elcheadvanced
Nino 81'
8/16/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Zaragoza39%
×Draw29%
Elche33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaragoza
1.18
Elche
1.06

Zaragoza creates 11% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 86 away

creates per match

Zaragoza
1.08
Elche
1.07

allows per match

Zaragoza
1.06
Elche
1.28

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw
67%
Zaragoza or Elche
71%
Draw or Elche
61%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+
16%
Elche wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals
69%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
33%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
12%
Elche 1+ goals
65%
Elche 2+ goals
29%
Elche 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)
54%
Elche (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 171 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Elche attack 1.07 + Zaragoza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaragoza scores more
39%
level
29%
Elche scores more
33%

Zaragoza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Edgar BadiaElcheElche · G
8.3

Match Events

6'
M. Sanchez
22'
F. Fidel
55'
M. Sanchez← R. Folch
55'
J. A. Fernandez Pomares← I. Sanchez
59'
A. Blanco← A. Soro
59'
M. Linares← Andre Pereira
72'
I. Eguaras← D. Torres
72'
F. Fidel← P. Milla
75'
Andre Pereira
81'
Nino
85'
J. El Yamiq← M. Baselga
87'
J. RosMissed penalty
89'
V. Rodriguez← J. Sanchez
89'
Nino← O. Mfulu

Possession

51%Zaragoza

Shots

12Zaragoza

Pass accuracy

50%Zaragoza

Statistics

ZaragozaElche
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots4
4Corners1
22Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots4
3On Target2
3Off Target1
6Blocked1
7Inside Box2
5Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
373Total Passes362
295Accurate Passes281
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
22Fouls18
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides6

Segunda División: Zaragoza 0–1 Elche

Elche beat Zaragoza 1-0 in Segunda División on August 16, 2020.

Goals: Nino (81').

Zaragoza controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.