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Zanaco vs Green Eagles — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Green Eagles
Green Eagles
12/3/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Zanaco41%
×Draw30%
Green Eagles28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
1.14
Green Eagles
0.89

Zanaco creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.35
Green Eagles
0.86

allows per match

Zanaco
0.91
Green Eagles
0.93

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
Green Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

Green Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
72%
Zanaco or Green Eagles
70%
Draw or Green Eagles
59%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
17%
Green Eagles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
68%
Zanaco 2+ goals
32%
Zanaco 3+ goals
11%
Green Eagles 1+ goals
59%
Green Eagles 2+ goals
22%
Green Eagles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
59%
Green Eagles (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.91 · 112 matches

Green Eagles away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.35 + Green Eagles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Green Eagles attack 0.86 + Zanaco defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zanaco scores more
41%
level
30%
Green Eagles scores more
28%

Zanaco at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Zanaco 1–1 Green Eagles

Zanaco and Green Eagles drew 1-1 in Super League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.