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Zamora vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
Preview
16:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
1/3/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Ruta de la Plata
48%
Zamora
model favours
48%27%25%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Zamora48%
×Draw27%
Real Unión25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.42
Real Unión
0.96

Zamora creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
75%
Zamora or Real Unión
73%
Draw or Real Unión
52%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
23%
Real Unión wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
76%
Zamora 2+ goals
41%
Zamora 3+ goals
17%
Real Unión 1+ goals
62%
Real Unión 2+ goals
25%
Real Unión 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
65%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zamora scores more
48%
level
27%
Real Unión scores more
25%

Zamora at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 20% of Zamora’s matches
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • 70% of Zamora’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión win just 21% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zamora
LWWLL
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zamora face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Zamora hosting Real Unión. Match starts January 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zamora host Real Unión at Estadio Ruta de la Plata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.