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Zamora vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
Preview
16:00
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
3/14/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Ruta de la Plata
43%
Zamora
model favours
43%29%28%

Both teams score in only 20% of Zamora’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Zamora43%
×Draw29%
Mérida AD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.23
Mérida AD
0.93

Zamora creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 37 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
72%
Zamora or Mérida AD
71%
Draw or Mérida AD
57%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
19%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
71%
Zamora 2+ goals
35%
Zamora 3+ goals
13%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
61%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
24%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
61%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zamora scores more
43%
level
29%
Mérida AD scores more
28%

Zamora at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Zamora’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zamora
LWWLL
AD
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zamora vs Mérida AD — Match Preview

Zamora face Mérida AD on March 14, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zamora host Mérida AD at Estadio Ruta de la Plata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.