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Zamora vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
Preview
15:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
4/18/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Ruta de la Plata
50%
Zamora
model favours
50%27%23%

Both teams score in only 20% of Zamora’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zamora50%
×Draw27%
Arenas Getxo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.43
Arenas Getxo
0.86

Zamora creates 66% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
77%
Zamora or Arenas Getxo
73%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
50%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
25%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
76%
Zamora 2+ goals
42%
Zamora 3+ goals
17%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
58%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
69%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.43

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zamora scores more
50%
level
27%
Arenas Getxo scores more
23%

Zamora at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Zamora’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zamora
LWWLL
Getxo
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zamora face Arenas Getxo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Zamora hosting Arenas Getxo. Match starts April 18, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zamora host Arenas Getxo at Estadio Ruta de la Plata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.