Zamora FC 2–1 Zulia FC: Result & Stats

Zamora FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zulia FC

9/2/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar (Barinas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Zamora FC50%

×Draw25%

Zulia FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamora FCExpected goals in this matchZulia FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.01

Zamora FC

1.56

Zulia FC

1.01

Zamora FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 66 away

1.52

creates per match

1.06

0.96

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Zamora FC

1.52

Zulia FC

1.06

allows per match

Zamora FC

0.96

Zulia FC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Zulia FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw

75%

Zamora FC or Zulia FC

75%

Draw or Zulia FC

50%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+

26%

Zulia FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals

79%

Zamora FC 2+ goals

46%

Zamora FC 3+ goals

21%

Zulia FC 1+ goals

64%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

27%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)

67%

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 134 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 1.52 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Zamora FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zamora FC scores more

50%

level

25%

Zulia FC scores more

25%

Zamora FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff