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Zamora FC vs Rayo Zuliano — Primera División 2018

Zamora FC
Zamora FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
2/25/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Zamora FC53%
×Draw24%
Rayo Zuliano23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora FC
1.68
Rayo Zuliano
1.01

Zamora FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 50 away

creates per match

Zamora FC
1.52
Rayo Zuliano
1.06

allows per match

Zamora FC
0.96
Rayo Zuliano
1.84

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par
Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Rayo Zuliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw
77%
Zamora FC or Rayo Zuliano
76%
Draw or Rayo Zuliano
47%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals
81%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
50%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
24%
Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
64%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
27%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)
70%
Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 134 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 1.52 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.68

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.06 + Zamora FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zamora FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Rayo Zuliano scores more
23%

Zamora FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Zamora FC 1–1 Rayo Zuliano

Zamora FC and Rayo Zuliano drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.