Zamalek SC 4–1 Misr El Makasa: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Misr El Makasa

1/29/2019

Premier League · Round 20Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zamalek SC56%

×Draw25%

Misr El Makasa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchMisr El Makasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.82

Zamalek SC

1.60

Misr El Makasa

0.82

Zamalek SC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 68 away

1.84

creates per match

0.87

0.78

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.84

Misr El Makasa

0.87

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.78

Misr El Makasa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Misr El Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Misr El Makasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

81%

Zamalek SC or Misr El Makasa

75%

Draw or Misr El Makasa

44%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

30%

Misr El Makasa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

80%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

47%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

22%

Misr El Makasa 1+ goals

56%

Misr El Makasa 2+ goals

20%

Misr El Makasa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

74%

Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 129 matches

Misr El Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.84 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Misr El Makasa attack 0.87 + Zamalek SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

56%

level

25%

Misr El Makasa scores more

19%

Zamalek SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff