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Žalgiris II vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
FT
3 – 2
Jonava
Jonava
D. Linauskas 80', 59', 22'
J. Ulberkis 79'
D. Raudonius 45'
9/16/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 24Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Žalgiris II41%
×Draw23%
Jonava36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žalgiris II
1.74
Jonava
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 72 away

creates per match

Žalgiris II
1.99
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Žalgiris II
1.92
Jonava
1.49

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw
64%
Žalgiris II or Jonava
77%
Draw or Jonava
59%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+
21%
Jonava wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals
82%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
52%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
25%
Jonava 1+ goals
80%
Jonava 2+ goals
48%
Jonava 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
53%
Jonava (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.99 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.74

Jonava attack 1.32 + Žalgiris II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Žalgiris II scores more
41%
level
23%
Jonava scores more
36%

Žalgiris II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
D. Linauskas
45'
D. Raudonius
59'
D. Linauskas
79'
J. Ulberkis
80'
D. Linauskas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žalgiris II vs Jonava

Žalgiris II beat Jonava 3-2 in 1 Lyga on September 16, 2019.

Goals: D. Linauskas (22', 59', 80'), D. Raudonius (45'), J. Ulberkis (79').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).