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Zakho vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Zakho
Zakho
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
1/16/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 19Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Zakho44%
×Draw29%
Naft Maysan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.26
Naft Maysan
0.93

Zakho creates 35% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 112 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.21
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Zakho
0.79
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
73%
Zakho or Naft Maysan
71%
Draw or Naft Maysan
56%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
20%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
72%
Zakho 2+ goals
36%
Zakho 3+ goals
13%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
61%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
24%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 107 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.21 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Zakho defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zakho scores more
44%
level
29%
Naft Maysan scores more
27%

Zakho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zakho vs Naft Maysan

Zakho and Naft Maysan drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.