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Zagora vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
1 – 2
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
11/4/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Zagora61%
×Draw21%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.08
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.03

Zagora creates 102% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.18

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.47

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
82%
Zagora or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
79%
Draw or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
39%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
38%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
87%
Zagora 2+ goals
61%
Zagora 3+ goals
34%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
64%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
28%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
77%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.08

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.18 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zagora scores more
61%
level
21%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
18%

Zagora at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagora vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat Zagora 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.