Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Podbeskidzie

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

CANC

09:00

Podbeskidzie

6/25/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion LKS Pasjonat Dankowice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec27%

×Draw22%

Podbeskidzie51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.96

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.37

Podbeskidzie

1.96

Podbeskidzie creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.70

2.21

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.64

Podbeskidzie

1.70

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.21

Podbeskidzie

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

49%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Podbeskidzie

78%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

73%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

12%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

75%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

40%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

16%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

86%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

58%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

34%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.64 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.37

Podbeskidzie attack 1.70 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

27%

level

22%

Podbeskidzie scores more

51%

Podbeskidzie at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff