Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–1 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Podbeskidzie

F. Piasecki 47'

K. Danielak 27'

7/27/2019

I Liga · Round 1Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec38%

×Draw26%

Podbeskidzie36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.33

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.36

Podbeskidzie

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 82 away

1.16

creates per match

1.28

1.39

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Podbeskidzie

1.28

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Podbeskidzie

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

64%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Podbeskidzie

74%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

62%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

17%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

74%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

39%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

16%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

74%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

38%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

51%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Podbeskidzie attack 1.28 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

38%

level

26%

Podbeskidzie scores more

36%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

K. Danielak

31'

D. Ryndak← R. Grzelak

35'

D. Ryndak

46'

F. Karbowy← P. Mularczyk

47'

F. Piasecki

65'

K. Radkowski← J. Sinior

69'

L. Sierpina

71'

D. Bashlay

Zaglebie

Podbeskidzie

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Mroczkowski

31'▲D. Ryndak←▼R. Grzelak

46'▲F. Karbowy←▼P. Mularczyk

65'▲K. Radkowski←▼J. Sinior

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

RyndakKarbowyRadkowski

Manager: K. Brede