Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–4 Korona Kielce

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Korona Kielce

G. Gabedava 56'

Ž. Udovičić 45'

M. Cebula 90+2', 10'

E. Soriano 77', 40'

5/14/2019

Ekstraklasa · Relegation Round - 6Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec40%

×Draw23%

Korona Kielce37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.64

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.71

Korona Kielce

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 104 away

1.89

creates per match

0.95

2.33

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.89

Korona Kielce

0.95

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.33

Korona Kielce

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

63%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Korona Kielce

77%

Draw or Korona Kielce

60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

21%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

82%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

51%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

24%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

81%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

49%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

52%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Korona Kielce defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Korona Kielce attack 0.95 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

40%

level

23%

Korona Kielce scores more

37%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

14'

28'

40'

45'

46'

T. Nowak← T. Pietrzak

46'

T. Nawotka← R. Janicki

46'

O. Petrak← O. Skrzecz

56'

G. Gabedava↳ Ž. Udovičić

58'

Oliver Petrak

64'

M. Pučko← V. Arveladze

68'

A. Kovačević← O. Gnjatić

77'

E. Soriano↳ A. Kovačević

82'

O. Nowak← K. Radkowski

84'

Georgios Mygas

90+2'

M. Cebula↳ A. Kovačević

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ZaglebieKorona

Overview

43%Possession57%

4Total Shots15

5Corners3

18Fouls18

Shots

4Total Shots15

2On Target11

2Off Target4

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2