Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Widzew Łódź

11/11/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 15Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin41%

×Draw26%

Widzew Łódź33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Zaglebie Lubin

1.39

Widzew Łódź

1.23

Zaglebie Lubin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.23

Widzew Łódź

1.13

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.33

Widzew Łódź

1.54

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.43scores less

Widzew Łódź-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

67%

Zaglebie Lubin or Widzew Łódź

74%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

59%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

19%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

75%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

40%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

16%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

71%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

35%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

55%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.23 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Widzew Łódź attack 1.13 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

41%

level

26%

Widzew Łódź scores more

33%

Zaglebie Lubin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff