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Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
12/3/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 17Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin36%
×Draw25%
Legia Warszawa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.44
Legia Warszawa
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.23
Legia Warszawa
1.71

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.33
Legia Warszawa
1.65

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.43scores less
Legia Warszawa-0.14scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
60%
Zaglebie Lubin or Legia Warszawa
75%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
64%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
17%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
76%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
42%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
18%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
78%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
45%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
48%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.65 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.23 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Legia Warszawa attack 1.71 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
36%
level
25%
Legia Warszawa scores more
40%

Legia Warszawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa

Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.