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Zacapa Tellioz vs Guastatoya — Liga Nacional 2019

Zacapa Tellioz
Zacapa Tellioz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guastatoya
Guastatoya
9/10/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 7Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zacapa Tellioz44%
×Draw30%
Guastatoya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacapa Tellioz
1.17
Guastatoya
0.80

Zacapa Tellioz creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 152 away

creates per match

Zacapa Tellioz
1.04
Guastatoya
0.73

allows per match

Zacapa Tellioz
0.88
Guastatoya
1.30

finishing

Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par
Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacapa Tellioz ↓

Guastatoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Zacapa Tellioz or draw
75%
Zacapa Tellioz or Guastatoya
70%
Draw or Guastatoya
56%

Winning margin

Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+
19%
Guastatoya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals
69%
Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals
33%
Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals
11%
Guastatoya 1+ goals
55%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
19%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)
64%
Guastatoya (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacapa Tellioz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacapa Tellioz attack 1.04 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zacapa Tellioz scores more
44%
level
30%
Guastatoya scores more
25%

Zacapa Tellioz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zacapa Tellioz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Zacapa Tellioz 2–1 Guastatoya

Zacapa Tellioz beat Guastatoya 2-1 in Liga Nacional on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales in Zacapa.