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Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
2/24/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Yverdon Sport38%
×Draw26%
FC Basel 189336%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yverdon Sport
1.37
FC Basel 1893
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Yverdon Sport
1.27
FC Basel 1893
1.46

allows per match

Yverdon Sport
1.18
FC Basel 1893
1.47

finishing

Yverdon Sport-0.27scores less
FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw
64%
Yverdon Sport or FC Basel 1893
74%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
62%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
18%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
75%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
40%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
16%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
73%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
38%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
52%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 6 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.27 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more
38%
level
26%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
36%

Yverdon Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893

FC Basel 1893 beat Yverdon Sport 2-0 in Super League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.