Yverdon Sport 3–2 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Basel 1893

A. Mahious 80'

Liziero 47'

V. Tasar 12'

J. Augustin 87' (pen)

M. Malone 27'

9/24/2023

Super League · Round 7Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Yverdon Sport40%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189336%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

Yverdon Sport

1.56

FC Basel 1893

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.35

creates per match

1.67

1.24

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

1.35

FC Basel 1893

1.67

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

1.24

FC Basel 1893

1.77

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Yverdon Sport+0.03on par

FC Basel 1893+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

64%

Yverdon Sport or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

60%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

20%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

79%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

46%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

21%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

77%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

43%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

53%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 8 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.77 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.35 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.67 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

40%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

36%

Yverdon Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

V. Tasar

Yverdon Sport · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

12'

20'

21'

27'

M. Malone↳ Đ. Jovanović

36'

Yusuf Demir

39'

Mohamed Dräger

46'

Jonathan Dubasin← M. Malone

47'

Liziero↳ C. Lungoyi

62'

T. Xhaka← F. Frei

62'

T. Barry← J. Gauto

70'

N. Lusuena← Liziero

70'

Mauro Rodrigues← V. Tasar

72'

J. Augustin← Y. Demir

77'

B. Beyer← C. Lungoyi

77'

D. Corness← H. Loucif

80'

A. Mahious↳ Mauro Rodrigues

81'

L. Avdullahu← Arnau Comas

82'

Dominic Corness

85'

Renato VeigaPenalty confirmed

87'

J. AugustinPenalty

88'

Kevin Carlos← A. Mahious

90+3'

Mauro Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YverdonFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots12

2.05Expected Goals (xG)1.50

7Corners5

15Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target5

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

324Total Passes427

255Accurate Passes362

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls20

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1