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Yunnan Yukun vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2018

Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
Preview
12:00
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
7/17/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium
45%
SHANGHAI SIPG
model favours
31%23%45%

Both teams score in 94% of SHANGHAI SIPG’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Yunnan Yukun31%
×Draw23%
SHANGHAI SIPG45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yunnan Yukun
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.74

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun
1.60
SHANGHAI SIPG
2.09

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun
1.39
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.22

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+1.00scores more
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.71scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw
55%
Yunnan Yukun or SHANGHAI SIPG
77%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
69%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
14%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
76%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
41%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
17%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
82%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
52%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
41%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.22 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.60 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.09 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more
31%
level
23%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
45%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • SHANGHAI SIPG have scored in 10 games running
  • SHANGHAI SIPG score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.7 goals
  • Yunnan Yukun outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Yunnan Yukun
Balanced
SHANGHAI SIPG
Possession-dominant
46%Possession61%
76%Pass accuracy85%
14.5Shots16.5
1.21xGBiggest gap2.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Yunnan YukunSHANGHAI SIPG

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

0
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Avg goals: 4.7BTTS: 100%
1–22–42–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Yukun
LWLWD
SIPG
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yunnan Yukun vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Match Preview

Yunnan Yukun face SHANGHAI SIPG on July 17, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Yunnan Yukun host SHANGHAI SIPG at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.