KV Mechelen 2–0 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Anderlecht

A. Vranckx 72'

G. Hairemans 48'

2/15/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 26Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

KV Mechelen40%

×Draw24%

Anderlecht36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.50

KV Mechelen

1.60

Anderlecht

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

1.36

1.63

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.33

Anderlecht

1.36

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.63

Anderlecht

1.86

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.03on par

Anderlecht-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

64%

KV Mechelen or Anderlecht

76%

Draw or Anderlecht

60%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

20%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

80%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

47%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

22%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

78%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

44%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

53%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 20 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.86 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.33 + Anderlecht defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Anderlecht attack 1.36 + KV Mechelen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

40%

level

24%

Anderlecht scores more

36%

KV Mechelen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

45'

45'

45'

48'

G. Hairemans↳ A. Vranckx

60'

Joachim Van Damme

62'

M. Pjaca← M. Vlap

72'

A. Vranckx↳ N. Storm

73'

Z. Bakkali← D. Joveljić

77'

C. Tainmont← N. Storm

83'

W. Togui← I. de Camargo

87'

Clement Tainmont

90'

D. Vanzeir← G. Hairemans

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KVAnderlecht

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots8

4Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target1

7Off Target7

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1