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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
5/5/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 27Stade Municipal de Berrechid (Berrechid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid40%
×Draw29%
Difaa EL Jadida31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.20
Difaa EL Jadida
1.02

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 105 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.89
Difaa EL Jadida
1.00

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.03
Difaa EL Jadida
1.51

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
69%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Difaa EL Jadida
71%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
60%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
17%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
70%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
34%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
12%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
64%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
27%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
56%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.20

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
40%
level
29%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
31%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs Difaa EL Jadida

Youssoufia Berrechid and Difaa EL Jadida drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid (Berrechid).